Barack Obama has clinched the Democratic nomination. Even before this historic achievement, most pundits and even some Democrats in our state, including some very senior party officials, have said that Obama doesn’t have a prayer of carrying South Carolina in the fall elections. He will.
This traditional political thinking is like shortsighted generals -– they continually refight the last war instead of preparing for the current war that is ahead of them.
History says that they are right. Since 1960, the only Democrat to carry South Carolina was Jimmy Carter from neighboring Georgia in 1976. In the seven presidential contests since then, Democrats have averaged only 40 percent of the vote. John Kerry got 41 percent.
But simply predicting the future based solely on the past is like trying to steer a car by looking backwards through the rear view mirror -- often with the predictable results.
There are five reasons why Obama’s campaign is fundamentally different and the results will be different too.
First, it’s time. Nothing is more powerful than an idea whose time has come, and Obama’s time has come. Americans are ready for something fundamentally different in our national politics. Polls show that by most any measure Americans are fed up with politics as usual and the politicians that deliver it. They believe that it’s time to turn the page to a new type of politics that moves beyond the stale division, the senseless partisanship and the corruption of special interest politics. Obama represents this fundamental change.
Second, the map and the math of the fall campaign will be different.
Traditionally, the two parties analyze past election returns and focus on about a dozen or so battleground or swing states and pretty much ignore the rest of the country. The South in general and South Carolina in particular have fallen victim to this traditional math and we have been ignored as a safe Republican state.
But this time, Obama changes the game with a different kind of math. Palmetto state Democrats are excited and are turning out to vote in record numbers. In the presidential primaries, more Democrats than Republicans voted for the first time in many years with Democratic ‘08 turnout up 80 percent and Republicans down 25 percent from ‘04. The number of African-Americans that voted in our states’ presidential primary more than doubled from ‘04 to ‘08.
Plus, with the realization that Obama has a real shot at becoming the first black president, excitement will grow to a fever pitch in the African-American community. There are about 250,000 blacks who are not registered to vote and the Obama campaign has already launched an aggressive voter registration drive for the fall. Black turnout in November will likely increase by at least a third, maybe more over ‘04 – fundamentally changing traditional election day math.
Third, Democrats will be united like never before. Democrats really want to win. Forget all the talk about the Clintons dividing the party. In order to repair the damage they have done to the Clinton “brand,” they will see it in their own self-interest to enthusiastically embrace and support Obama. I predict their rehabilitation performance at the Democratic Convention will make it seem like they were the ones that made Obama’s historic breakthrough possible.
Fourth, the money. When Obama made his first trip to South Carolina in January of last year, I suggested to him that with a strong online effort he could raise $500 million. His response was wide-eyed amazement and disbelief. Today, he has already raised over half this amount and he’s just now secured the nomination. I predicted that by Election Day, the combined Obama/Democratic Party effort will raise $1 billion –- yes billion with a b.
The impact on the state and local level will be dramatic. For years we Democrats have fanaticized about a strong, untied party with an energizing message and adequate resources to run a truly coordinated campaign “from the White House to the courthouse.” This time, it will happen.
Fifth, McCain’s candidacy is fundamentally flawed. Just as Bob Dole did in 1996, McCain is likely to fade into bit player. Everyone respects McCain personally and his service to the country –- he is a true American hero. But that’s not the point.
To date he lacks a clear and compelling vision of where he wants to take the country in the future. He seems to essentially be offering a third Bush term -- an idea fundamentally rejected by the American people. To most folks, McCain’s plan for Iraq looks like more of the same. And, when compared to Obama’s youth and charisma, he simply seems too old and tired.
Beyond the November election returns, the Obama campaign will also accelerate change politics in South Carolina -– it already has. In the January presidential primary Obama brought out a whole new generation of young and black voters who having once tasted success will not likely fade away but instead will demand more. And, most importantly there is now a whole new generation of reform candidates, both black and white, emerging who are committed to changing politics as usual -– from the school boards to the courthouses to the Statehouse.
So, it’s time. It’s time for us to quit gazing backwards in the rearview mirror into the political darkness of the past. It’s time for us to look ahead to the bright new day that is dawning in Palmetto state politics.
-- Phil Noble is a businessman from Charleston who is a member of Obama’s Statewide Steering Committee.